TV sales remained weak during the first half of 2023 due to poor global macroeconomic conditions and out-of-sync product replacement cycles following unprecedented demand in major markets during 2020. Through the second half of 2023, Futuresource expects demand trends for TVs to remain sluggish as the economy continues to stabilise. A further drop in shipments of 4.1% during 2023 is anticipated, totalling 210.9 million units.
In terms of value, Futuresource expects the TV market to shrink by 4.4%, primarily due to a dip in the mid-tier TV segment. A growing shift towards larger screen sizes and premium TV technologies such as QLED, MiniLED, and Micro LEDs will help boost ASPs; however, falling prices of these premium models due to intense price competition is set to keep value on a falling trajectory.
Despite the post-pandemic recovery witnessed across some TV markets, supply chain issues remain. LCD panel prices climbed significantly in the first half of 2023 and are likely to increase further in Q3; however, prices are anticipated to start stabilising in October, which is set to result in a longer-term trend of falling prices. Additionally, with increasing demand for OLED TVs, leading vendors such as LG and Samsung have significantly increased their scale of OLED panel manufacturing, resulting in falling prices of OLED TVs. Overall, ASPs of TVs are projected to decline by around 1% in 2023.
Futuresource anticipates that TV shipments will ease into recovery in 2024 and continue to register a low level of growth from 2025, given the turbulent post-pandemic economic environment. A large portion of this growth is expected to come from developing markets with rising disposable income and expanding broadband penetration. In addition, gradually decreasing prices, especially for premium screen technologies, will increase affordability for consumers, stimulating demand in 2025 and beyond.
Despite facing difficulties, Samsung continued to lead the global TV market in H1 2023. While Samsung shipments are expected to fall by around 5% this year, value remains strong. Due to increasing sales of ultra-large screens and Neo-QLED models, Samsung is expected to see its value climb.
LG maintained its leading position in the OLED TVs segment but faces fierce competition from the Chinese TV giants TCL and Hisense. As a result, we expect LG’s shipments to fall by 4.6% in 2023. Nevertheless, both Samsung and LG are focusing on maintaining competitive prices, which will help them strengthen their position in the premium market.
Chinese TV brands are forecasted to maintain their growing market share in 2023 due to their lower prices, increased global presence seen most notably in developing markets, and expansion of the premium TV segment.
Hisense continued to register volume growth, especially in premium models like ultra-large screen TVs and MiniLED TVs in H1 2023. This growth is expected to continue with the brand launching multiple new models of MiniLED TVs in 2023 and continuous upgrades in its previously launched models in terms of picture quality and other features.
Global shipments of TCL Mini-LED TVs grew by 114.5% YoY in H1 2023 and should continue to make gains across the remainder of 2023. The company’s 65-inch and above-screen size category is also seeing considerable growth, with the launch of multiple new models in 2023 to date. Hisense and TCL's sales will continue their growth trajectory with competitive pricing strategies and all category development.
Xiaomi registered a comparatively flat sales growth in 2022. However, in 2023, the brand is expected to maintain its position in the top 5 globally and record solid growth in terms of shipments with the growing popularity of the brand’s large-screen premium TV models.
Overall TV market demand is expected to remain weak for the remainder of the year and into 2024. Less affluent consumers are being affected by the current economic downturn, which is stifling demand – however, the situation is expected to improve in the future. Futuresource anticipates TV sales to begin recovering from 2025, but there will still be intense competition from both incumbent brands and newcomer Chinese TV manufacturers focusing on growing shipments and market share of premium segments.
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