Explore how the biggest announcements from CinemaCon 2026 are setting the direction for the year ahead

by Rachel Mitchell, Market Analyst, Futuresource Consulting

From 13 to 16 April, Caesars Palace in Las Vegas hosted the strongest CinemaCon in years. Every major studio presented, the exhibition community turned out in force, and the tone across keynotes, panels and screenings was much more confident than at any point since 2019. Cinema United President Michael O’Leary used his State of the Industry address to highlight growing audience trends, with US admissions up around 16% year-to-date and revenue up 23%. Domestically, the box office has taken roughly $2.3 billion through mid-April, and Futuresource has a preliminary forecast of $36 billion globally for the full year. That would make 2026 the highest-grossing year since 2019.

The announcements were just as big. Disney launched Infinity Vision, a new studio-backed premium large format certification programme covering 75 domestic and 300 global screens. Paramount’s new owner David Ellison appeared in person to confirm a 30 films per year commitment to theatrical with 45-day exclusive windows. Amazon MGM committed to 15 films per year, and Universal unveiled a slate led by Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey, the first film shot entirely in IMAX full-frame (1.43:1). Warner Bros., Sony, Paramount and Disney all brought major presentations covering Avengers: Doomsday, Dune: Part Three, Toy Story 5, The Mandalorian and Grogu, and more.

 With so many dynamics at play, the central question becomes:

Is the exhibition industry genuinely back on track? Futuresource reaction: “Two key signals suggest the answer is yes. Volume is returning and windows are getting longer.”

Volume is back

The studios that cut their theatrical slates during the pandemic are now publicly recommitting. Paramount’s 30 films per year, Amazon MGM’s 15, Disney’s return to a 2019-scale tentpole lineup, and Universal’s ongoing Blumhouse-plus-prestige formula together represent a step change. 2019 saw around 900 wide releases in North America, and 2026 is on track to get close to that level for the first time since the pandemic. The commitment now spans all types of films: franchises, originals, horror, mid-budget dramas and event re-releases (Disney’s Avengers: Endgame re-release in September is designed to anchor the Infinity Vision launch).

Futuresource reaction: Although volume is necessary it’s not sufficient to continue the strong upward momentum. The mid-tier titles are what will separate a genuine recovery from a pipeline refill.

Windows are hardening

Theatrical windows are moving in exhibitors’ favour. The average US window has grown from 17 days at the pandemic low to around 37 days in 2025, with Disney averaging 62 days, Universal moving from five to seven weekends of exclusivity, and O’Leary publicly pushing for a 45-day industry standard. Ellison’s 45-day Paramount commitment at CinemaCon was not a concession but a statement of intent. He aligned the incoming Paramount with the exhibitor-preferred model rather than the streaming-first model that Warner Bros. Discovery tried earlier in the decade. That matters because exhibitors consistently show that longer exclusive windows lead directly to higher per-title box office.

The most striking real-time example came mid-convention, when Amazon MGM announced that it was extending the exclusive theatrical window for Project Hail Mary. Co-director Christopher Miller confirmed on X that the film “won’t be on streaming anytime soon”, and Amazon put the film back on IMAX screens for a dedicated one-week run. With $517 million worldwide and climbing after just over a month in cinemas, the decision makes commercial sense, and the symbolic message is just as important. Amazon, one of the most streaming-first studios in Hollywood, is publicly choosing theatrical longevity over fast home-entertainment revenue.

The merger wildcard

The whole picture is complicated by the Paramount-Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, with a shareholder vote scheduled for 23rd April. If approved, the combined company would account for a large share of the global theatrical market. NRG modelling shows output under various merger scenarios ranges from 15 to 25 films per year, well below the 30+ each studio currently produces on its own. More than 1,000 filmmakers have signed an open letter opposing the deal on the grounds of industry concentration, and exhibitors are watching closely to see whether Ellison’s 30/45 commitment survives the merger. A drop in output after the deal would directly offset the volume gains celebrated at CinemaCon.

Futuresource reaction: Ellison's 30/45 pledge is the one to watch. If it holds after the merger, the volume story stays intact. If it slips, exhibitors will feel it quickly.

Disney’s Infinity Vision gambit

The premium format arms race is heating up, and Disney’s Infinity Vision announcement is the most strategically important development to come out of CinemaCon. Unveiled on the closing day by Andrew Cripps, Head of Theatrical Distribution for The Walt Disney Studios, Infinity Vision is a new studio-backed certification for premium large format theatres. It is awarded to auditoriums that meet strict technical standards: the largest screens for maximum scale, laser projection for better brightness and clarity, and premium audio for fully immersive sound. Cripps described it as “a shared effort between The Walt Disney Studios and the exhibition community to help audiences quickly find the very best screens in their area to experience our films in exactly the way they’re designed to be seen.” The programme launches in September with the re-release of Avengers: Endgame, followed by Avengers: Doomsday in December, and covers around 75 domestic and 300 global PLF screens. Participating theatres receive dedicated Infinity Vision branding online and in-theatre, plus marketing support from Disney.

The significance of this is twofold. First, it positions Disney as a certifier of cinema quality, a role previously held only by IMAX and Dolby. If an auditorium meets Disney’s standards, it earns the same consumer-facing quality badge as an IMAX screen, at least for Disney content. The question for consumers quietly shifts from “Is it IMAX?” to “Is it Infinity Vision-certified?” Second, it gives Disney new leverage in PLF screen allocation talks, and arrives at a moment when IMAX is at its commercial peak, with $1.28 billion in global box office in 2025 and $1.4 billion guidance for 2026. Premium large format now accounts for 15.6% of total box office revenue (up from 10.3% in 2019), while the US average ticket price rose to $11.72 in 2025 and is forecast to reach $12.14 in 2026, according to Futuresource. Exhibitors with high-quality proprietary PLF auditoriums suddenly have a new path to studio-endorsed recognition. However, if Infinity Vision stays Disney-only, it risks adding to fragmentation in the certification landscape rather than simplifying it.

Futuresource reaction: This is less about cinema technology and more about studio leverage. Disney is using Infinity Vision to reshape how premium screens are allocated for its tentpoles, and we expect Warner Bros. and Universal could respond with their own frameworks in the future.

A two-speed global market

Not every market is sharing equally in the recovery. China’s 2026 Spring Festival fell to 2018-level revenue without a Ne Zha 2-scale local hit, and Futuresource estimates China down 5% on 2025. China’s challenge is local IP rather than Hollywood access, according to Futuresource. Until the domestic slate produces another breakout on the scale of Ne Zha 2, we expect the market to remain a drag on global totals through 2026.

Hollywood-driven markets such as North America, Western Europe and Latin America are carrying the global growth story. And globally, the forecast $36 billion is still around 12% below the 2017 to 2019 pre-pandemic average. CinemaCon’s optimism is justified by the direction of travel, but “back to normal” still needs a meaningful further recovery.

The team here at Futuresource will be keeping a close eye on all developments, particularly whether the franchise-heavy H2 slate delivers the forecast uplift. Initial analysis will be included in the upcoming Cinema Entertainment report at the end June.

Until then any questions then please do reach out to Rachel.Mitchell@futuresource-hq.com or to James.Duvall@futuresource-hq.com