TV’s silent workhorse reinvented, as STBs rewire for relevance

Set-top boxes are challenged as cord-cutting, streaming and operator innovation shape the future of the industry. 

Global set-top box (STB) shipments fell 1.4% year-on-year in 2024, to end the year at just over 181 million units, according to Futuresource Consulting’s latest market outlook report. With Pay-TV subscriber numbers continuing to retreat and alternative content platforms accelerating their expansion, the STB market is navigating a pivotal phase of transformation. 

Despite a projected 1.7% CAGR decline in global STB shipments out to 2029, Futuresource also identifies continued relevance for the STB as a managed delivery platform. Operators are increasingly turning to STBs not just for video content, but for integrated services, enhanced UI capabilities and application aggregation. 

Regional shake-ups and shifting STB distribution strategies

North America is feeling the brunt of the decline, falling from 80% to below 50% household penetration of pay-tv over the last decade. Meanwhile, regions such as Asia-Pacific and Eastern Europe are showing greater resilience, albeit with modest contraction.  

Worldwide, Futuresource expects the Pay-TV base to shrink by 33 million households by 2029. To combat churn and market erosion, operators are investing in smarter boxes, transitioning to IP-based delivery and bundling their services. Feature-rich STBs supporting voice control, gaming and third-party streaming services are driving upgrade cycles, particularly among higher-tier operators. 

Tariff uncertainty adds a layer of complexity

Geopolitical developments and unfolding tariff regimes in the US market are injecting further volatility into the industry. The Futuresource report explores various tariff scenarios and evaluates how they will impact STB prices and shipments in different ways, based on inflationary pressure and the associated consumer response. 

“Vendor agility is now more critical than ever,” says Carl Hibbert, Research Director at Futuresource Consulting. “We’re in the midst of a volatile global economic environment, with increasing competition from connected TVs and retail streamers. And while Pay-TV continues to lose ground to streaming, STB’s role remains strategic for operators aiming to retain control over service delivery and customer experience.” 

Vendor dynamics and Android momentum

Skyworth, Changhong and ZTE dominate the global vendor landscape, while Android Operator Tier STBs continue to gain share. These are being driven by operator appetite for feature-rich, app-centric platforms. Futuresource expects Android STB shipments to exceed 10 million by 2029, with Latin America and Western Europe showing notable momentum. 

“The STB market can no longer focus on sheer volume,” says Hibbert. “Now, it’s all about strategic value. We’re in a world where operators are maintaining a fine balance between managing Pay-TV contraction while leveraging STBs as experience enablers, content hubs and gateways to value-added services. To survive and thrive, vendors, operators and platform providers must all look beyond the surface-level trends and unpack the real profit drivers. OS strategies, regional dynamics, regulatory risks and the shift toward hybrid delivery are all essential routes to shaping a successful roadmap.” 

To learn more about Futuresource Consulting’s Set Top Box Global Market Outlook report or to make a purchase, please contact luke.brodin@futuresource-hq.com or visit here. 

About Futuresource Consulting
Futuresource Consulting, established in the 1980s, is a leading research and consulting firm specialising in global market analysis, forecasts and strategic insights. With a deep understanding of emerging trends and technologies, Futuresource helps businesses navigate complex markets and make informed decisions

Press Contact: Nicola Finn, Marketing Manager, Futuresource Consulting, nicola.finn@futuresource-hq.com