Connected TV at a crossroads The emerging dynamics shaping the future of television

The transformation of television is accelerating at a pace unmatched in the medium's history. After decades defined by linear viewing and closed distribution systems, the rise of Connected TV (CTV) platforms is reorganising nearly every part of the value chain. Smart TVs, streaming devices, and integrated operating systems have become the new gateways to content discovery and consumption, positioning CTV as the central user experience for years to come.

This shift has been propelled by a combination of changing consumer behaviours and advancements in technological capabilities. Viewers have increasingly embraced on-demand viewing, personalised recommendations, and seamless app-based navigation. Meanwhile, device makers, OS providers, and platform operators have invested heavily in interface design, content aggregation, and advertising technologies. In the process, the television has evolved from a passive display into a dynamic, data-enabled hub, one capable of delivering highly tailored content and monetisation opportunities.

For TV manufacturers, therefore, this is a pivotal moment. After years of watching their margins shrink in the hardware business, they suddenly hold strategic power through control of the interface, OS, and advertising inventory. This newfound leverage is reshaping revenue models and the competitive landscape of television itself.

The Post-Legacy TV Landscape: Substitution or Coexistence?

A major question looming over the market is whether CTV will fully supplant legacy distribution models or coexist with them in a more hybrid ecosystem. Traditional broadcast, cable, satellite, and IPTV platforms maintain meaningful, though declining, audiences. Their strength lies in predictable content delivery, reliability, and entrenched customer relationships, particularly among older demographics and sports viewers. Much will also depend on regulation and policy in different countries of course.
However, the gravitational pull of streaming is undeniable. Younger audiences overwhelmingly begin and end their viewing journeys within connected platforms, while content providers and advertisers have moved CTV to the top of their priority list. Whilst full substitution remains a possibility in the long term, the more likely scenario is a prolonged coexistence where traditional platforms retain a foothold in areas such as premium sports, local content, and bundled services.
Yet even in a hybrid environment, the balance of power is shifting. As CTV platforms take control of the user interface and increasingly, the advertising infrastructure, the traditional distributors' share of influence is eroding.

Smart TV Growth: Hardware Becomes the New Home Hub

The CTV hardware market is experiencing sustained growth, driven primarily by the mass adoption of smart TVs and media streaming boxes and dongles. According to our latest TV Market Report, sales of smart TVs will reach 181 million units globally in 2025 and are forecast to grow by 3% in 2026. These devices have evolved from simple playback screens into multifunctional home hubs that integrate entertainment, gaming, fitness, communication, and even smart home management.

Premium media streamers and next-generation set-top boxes complement this shift, offering advanced processing power, enhanced gaming capabilities, and sophisticated voice assistants. For many households, the CTV device is becoming the anchor for the wider digital ecosystem, tying together services such as home security, IoT appliances, cloud gaming, and video calling.

Understanding ownership across the different CTV device types is important as it provides the total number of addressable homes for streaming TV service providers and therefore the potential audience that can be served connected TV advertising. Modelling CTV households is complex as it involves understanding multiple levels of ownership across and within types of connected TV devices as well as across and within the different streaming platforms running on those devices.

Smart TV Operating Systems: Fragmentation and Fierce Competition

One of the defining characteristics of today's CTV landscape is OS fragmentation. More than ten smart TV operating systems compete globally, a stark contrast with the consolidated ecosystems of PCs and mobile devices.

Big tech players are pursuing distinct strategies. Google TV and Android TV emphasise openness and search-driven aggregation. Amazon's Fire TV connects deeply into its retail and advertising empire. Apple tvOS leverages premium hardware and ecosystem lock-in. At the same time, independent OS providers such as Whale OS and TiVo OS are attempting to carve out market share by offering flexibility to manufacturers seeking alternatives to big tech dominance. Meanwhile, manufacturer-led platforms like Samsung's Tizen, LG's webOS, and Hisense's Vidaa have broadened their ambitions from serving as device software to becoming global distribution platforms with their own advertising and content strategies.

This fragmented environment creates complexity for developers and advertisers, but also a rich field for innovation and differentiation.

Retail Media's Entry and the Implications for CTV's Future

Retailers are becoming influential players in the CTV ecosystem, using their data, customer relationships, and scale to reshape advertising dynamics. The most notable example is Walmart's acquisition of Vizio, signalling an aggressive move into retail-powered CTV advertising. By combining viewer data with first-party retail purchase information, retailers can offer highly targeted advertising and closed-loop attribution, something traditional TV could never match.

Meanwhile, a recent joint advertising initiative between Amazon Ads and Roku will give advertisers access to a combined Fire TV and Roku device footprint via Amazon's demand-side platform (DSP). This represents around 80% of US connected TV households and marks a significant moment where media buyers can target logged-in users across multiple major CTV platforms.

The future of the CTV market will be increasingly shaped by the manoeuvres of major retail powers. Owning the commerce data and TV OS can help them turn the living room into an extension of their retail media networks, bringing them a new, scalable revenue stream and delivering seamless shoppable ad experiences for consumers.

The outlook is far less certain for CTV OS providers with comparatively small footprints like TiVo, Whale OS, and Titan. Lacking the extensive user bases, deep content partnerships, and fully built-out retail media engines that power the major tech platforms, these smaller players may find it increasingly difficult to reach the scale required to compete, and ultimately, to endure.

For a deeper exploration of the trends, forecasts, and competitive dynamics in the global TV and streaming landscape, please visit our TV and Video Reports.